Vector Autoregressive Modeling of COVID-19 Incidence Rate in Nigeria

With the outbreak of COVID-19, a lot studies have been carried out in various science disciplines to either reduce spread or control increasing trend disease. Modeling pandemic is pertinent for inference making and implementation policies. In this study, we adopted Vector autoregressive model which takes into account dependence that exists between both multivariate variables modeling forecasting number confirmed COVID-19 cases deaths Nigeria. A co-integration test was prior application Autoregressive model. An autocorrelation heteroscedasticity were further where it observed there no at lag 3 4 respectively. It from study growing deaths. make forecast death. The also reveals rising infections government therefore needs put measures place curtail virus aim towards flattening curve.